I can't believe we're at Season 51. We're entering an entirely different era. The OPEN Era. And at a glance, I am extremely cautiously optimistic. Look, the Open Era could give CBS the license to make some actually good changes to Survivor. It could ALSO give them the license to ruin Survivor for forever. I want them to surprise me! But I really like the idea that we at least aren't running back the new era formula. That's something every fan should be happy about.

We will see what the Open Era has in store for us soon. For now, let's rank the players. One thing to note, we got absolutely no pre-season press. Like wtf is going on? I've never had less information to go off of, so my predictions are a lot more gut reactions. Here we go!

Zero Chancers

Rob's gonna be a huge problem LOL. I can't see a world where he doesn't rub someone the wrong way and get absolutely boomed from it. 0.00% chance of winning.

Patt was in the army, she's homeschooled, and she gives republican vibes? This is me really leaping to conclusions but her background is not what you need to win a social game.

Kristin and Maggie are both going under the unfortunate bucket of being older women. I'm so sorry! It's superficial! But I also think it's a reality of the game that the older you are the more obstacles you have. They both don't have the X factor I think they will need to overcome it.

Carter I really really like, but I don't think the "Oh shucks" country boy can win Survivor anymore. JT had that dog in him. I don't believe Carter has that dog in him.

Long Shots

I was going to rate Brady much higher, but I saw that he wants to play like Jonathan. Come on Brady. You can do better than that. Brady really has nobody to hide behind in this cast so I see him making it far and then being the obvious target.

Aaliyah gets this season's award for player who doesn't realize Survivor is a social game. IDK I'm just a little put off by the content I've seen about her. Like I don't blame her for being all business but that energy translates poorly into the game.

Alexis and Cristian are going to be gamebots. Alexis is quintessential Survivor "go on girl give us nothing" casting, and Cristian is quintessential "I've seen five seasons of Survivor and now I'm an expert" casting. I hope they both flame out.

Thien An is my queen. I want her to get so far but even in her interviews it feels like she's not confident she can win. You need to be a sweetheart with a backbone in this game.

Dark Horses

I think it's hilarious that Lewis is on the cast. His accent alone is going to get him far and get him allies. But honestly I think that's the exact reason he won't win. Imagine doing final tribal council against this guy LOL

Kilby's superfan vibe reminds me much more of Brandon Donlon than RizGod, but he does have the X-Factor. It would not surprise me if Kilby integrated easily into this game and was a winner contender. I also refuse to believe this guy can manage his threat level.

Similar to Kilby, Linnea is too much of a main character. She's just gonna get too involved not only in the strategy but the drama on the island.

Winner Contenders

Devin has it. Whatever you want to call it, "aura", "x-factor", "winner energy", Devin has it. A bubbly person that isn't frenetic but instead calm and thoughtful is a huge winner trait. Kyle and Dee to me are the blueprint for this, and Devin fits the bill.

Jenna is easily one of my favourites. Her energy is infectious, and exactly what I look for in a prospective winner. However, I also see Jenna as an extremely volatile pick. She could combust. She could just not be cut out for it. But I see a winner inside her, I think she can dig deep.

In the brief interviews I watched, Jelly and Eric were some of the only people to emphasize the social game. Green flag for them, red flag for everyone else. I really don't care if you're cutthroat, or an athlete, or a... checks notes ... HR Manager? If you talk about how you want to genuinely connect with your competitors, you will be great at Survivor. Eric especially is the full package. He's my winner pick!

Winner Contenders:

1. Eric
2. Jelly
3. Jenna
4. Devin

Dark Horses:

5. Mike
6. Kilby
7. Linnea
8. Sharonda
9. Lewis

Long Shots:

10. Ana
11. Thien An
12. Cristian
13. Alexis
14. Aaliyah
15. Brady

Zero Chance:

16. Carter
17. Ori
18. Maggie
19. Kristin
20. Patt
21. Rob