The first season of Survivor I watched was David vs Goliath. It was New Years Eve 2018, I had no plans, so I pulled up the first episode on my laptop. 12 hours later, the season was finished, it was 9am, and I decided I could finally sleep. After eight long years, I get to see Christian, Angelina and Mike White play Survivor again. And I really couldn't be more giddy about it. This is a freaking magical time to be a Survivor fan.

For the first time ever, I won't be skipping any players for these predictions. So yes, I'll be writing a paragraph about all 24 returning players for this post. lol. Seasons this momentual don't come around often, so why not. I'm very excited to do this.

Just to be clear, this is not a player ranking. This is a ranking of how likely they are to win.

Zero Chancers

24. Emily Flippen

I'm an Emily stan. I'm so happy Emily is here. But I think she is unbelievably cooked. Emily got incredibly lucky the first time around by having people like Kaleb and Drew take her under their wing. Overtime she genuinely grew into a competent player as well. But I think she might start Survivor 50 at ground zero again. I really don't think the old school players will vibe with her. Emily is an amazing character, but I don't think she's a good enough player to navigate this new social dynamic.

23. Savannah Louie

From all the pre-season interviews I've seen, there's two groups of people that are doomed: the winners and the 49ers. Unlucky for Savannah, she is both! There's very few reasons for anyone to want to work with her. Nobody knows anything about her, except that she was good enough to win. I find Savannah to be absolutely iconic, and I wouldn't put it past her to weasle through, but the deck is stacked against her.

22. Q

Q PLEASE DON'T BE AN EARLY BOOT. Q PLEASE DON'T RUN IT DOWN. Q I NEED YOU TO LOCK-IN. PLEASE.

I mean this guy could be good at Survivor if he wasn't a shit-poster, but Q is gonna come in and immediately start shit-posting. People see him as chaos, and as an easy first vote. Every episode that Q stays is a blessing from the Survivor gods.

21. Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick

I lowkey just don't think Stephenie is very good at these kind of games. She absolutely earned her spot on 50, but she is not destined to win. We just saw her uninspiring gameplay on Snake in the Grass and The Traitors. Stephenie will fit in really nicely with the old schoolers, and probably has no reason to go early, but Stephenie will not play an impressive game. Plus she's a drama queen.

20. Ozzy Lusth

Ozzy is the king of diminishing returns on Survivor appearances. Bro went from being one vote away from winning, to being the most useless player in Game Changers. Ozzy is someone I did not need to see return again. His only chance of winning is if he is self-aware and decides to really turn on the jets. But I think Ozzy will once again just come for the vibes and get voted off with a whimper.

19. Joe Hunter

Joe is hilarious to me. What a funny guy. This guy got clowned on by the jury in Survivor 48 for playing a soy game, then comes into 50 claiming he wants to play the exact same game! What a clown! Joe will go really far. He might even get to final tribal again. But if Joe wins a jury vote I will hunt down the players that voted for him and I will kindly ask them to never grace my screen again.

Long Shots

18. Kyle Fraser

As mentioned, the winners are in a bad spot. I really rate Kyle highly as a player though. He's so good at managing his threat level and ego stroking. I think people are gonna come into 50 really aggro against Kyle, but that might fade away within a few votes. Maybe Kyle makes merge and then joins a similar top-dog alliance. But I can't put a past winner much higher than this.

17. Angelina Keely

Very much like Q, Angelina is just here to shit-post. David vs Goliath could have been ran 100 times and Angelina would have won zero times. She is not good at Survivor. And maybe she will be better now that she's a mom and has reflected on the experience. But if we're being real she's gonna cause drama immediately, and we will be loving every minute of it.

16. Genevieve Mushaluk

It appears Genevieve has the largest target in terms of "she's a good strategist and she scares me" vibes. Unfortunately Genevieves reputation will hurt her a lot in 50. However, Genevieve is a truly great player. We saw her in 47 beat pretty tremendous odds and scrap her way to an almost victory. I think she'll have to play pretty aggressively early to throw other people under the bus.

15. Jonathan Young

I'm not a huge Jonathan fan, but this guys strategy is built for longevity in the game. Why would a tribe ever vote him off. You'd actually have to have brain damage to justify it. And then Jonathon isn't even that great at individual challenges. He will get to the merge and bro-out hard with the other alpha males. It's easy to see how Jonathon could win. He just needs to make moves this time.

14. Chrissy Hofbeck

Yes, Chrissy was robbed. Yes, her returning for 50 is an incredibly inspired choice. But if we're talking candidly, Chrissy was a very sloppy player. And at times she was unnecessarily villianous. Chrissy will have to check a lot of things at the door if she wants to mesh well with this group. But I'm very happy she's getting a second chance.

13. Dee Valladares

The last winner on the cast, I think Dee has the best shot of them. Which I guess is ironic because she is regarded as the best winner. Dee is honestly just that good at Survivor, I really think she's gonna integrate into her tribe amazingly. People are gonna love her all over again. But you have to think eventually the players will wisen up and find a good time to eliminate her. Surely.

12. Jenna Lewis

Jenna is the hardest person for me to rank. Maybe a little bit because its been forever since I've seen her seasons. My gut is telling me she won't stand a chance. She seems very eager to play, and distinctly very eager to scheme and strategize. To me that's a red flag. People do not fuck with overt strategists. She will have to cool it if she wants to win.

11. Rizo Velovic

This is honestly a really high spot to put Rizo, considering he has the 49er debuff. People are entering the game extremely wary of him. But unlike Queen Savannah, Rizo will have a much easier time ingratiating himself and lowering his target. Rizo is just an absolute goober. Once his tribemates get to know him I can see them being like "Wait, this is who we were afraid of?". And then Rizo will have more space to let the RizGod take stage.

Dark Horses

10. Charlie Davis

Charlie is barely making the top ten cut, because along with Genevieve, he's coming in hot with the "known strategist" energy. This cast in general is gonna be very anti-strategist (and more vibes and character based). However, Charlie has a lot of friends on his tribe. Most notably, Coach and Charlie share a close friend in Survivor 46 alumnus Ben Katzman. The Charlie/Coach duo is coming, be ready for it. Charlie played a really measured game of Survivor in 46, and I think that will really work in his favor here in 50.

9. Christian Hubicki

Oh Christian my sweet baby boy. You are as beautiful as the day I left you. I hope we get a full season of Christian confessionals. My doctor told me I need it.

My hot take is that Christian is a pretty underwhelming player. One of the best characters of all-time, but he played a pretty clumsy game in David vs Goliath. He basically had zero win equity because he couldn't manage his threat level at all. BUT, Christian seems very self-aware of this. He's been in interviews talking exactly about how he doesn't want the narrative spun against him this time. Love that for him.

8. Rick Devens

Watching Edge of Extinction while it was airing, it was unbelievable how hard I was rooting for Rick Devens. I love his showmanship and his dad energy. If he returned five years ago, he would have had the highest threat level on the entire cast. But now, the delay in his return is gonna do him wonders. Rick Devens is not known for his strategy or his social game, but he is a player that always finds a way. If he's on the hotseat, he will win immunity or find an idol. A weasel in the most affectionate sense of the word. He really needs to downplay his eagerness, and then he could wreak havoc.

7. Cirie Fields

Putting Cirie so close to the top is kind of a ???, I have to admit. Cirie is straight up cursed, and probably destined to never win Survivor. But, Cirie is also the best player to never win for a reason. The magic of Cirie Fields is that everytime she plays everyone wants to work with her. People NEED Cirie to be on their side. People yearn for Cirie's approval. She is maybe the best at pulling people into her web. The downfall of Cirie is that she can't win challenges, and she can't make fire, so it's super easy to cut her near the end. But this season might not even have firemaking!! And she just won The Traitors, so she still got the sauce.

6. Mike White

Don't even get me started on The White Lotus. It will probably play a role, of course, but I don't see it making a meaningful impact. Mike White is an extremely underrated Survivor player. He would have won David vs Goliath if he didn't throw final tribal council. His game was so nuanced and calculated. Almost all the social dynamics flowed through him and he controlled the entire endgame. Mike will never be as hungry for the win as his fellow players, but I think in a returnee season he might feel more okay with taking the million. Time will tell if his new found stardom will hurt him or help him.

Winner Picks

5. Aubry Bracco

The more time has passed, the more excited I've been for Aubrys return. Her appearance in Edge of Extinction was quite frankly embarrassing. What an awful note to leave us on. And if we get a glimmer of Kaoh Rong Aubry, I'll be so happy for her. This will be the lowest Aubrys threat level will ever be, and I think she's coming in with a lot of persepective. Aubry will pleasantly surprise a lot of people. My only fear is that the overall vibe of the cast doesn't work for her.

4. Tiffany Nicole Ervin

Tiffany is the obligatory, "She's coming in with the lowest threat level so she very well could win", choice. This happens all too often in returnee seasons. Why would you ever vote Tiffany out. Maybe specifically because of this meta reason. I could see a world where players pick up on the fact that she's a hyena among the lions. Tiffany honestly impressed me in 46 as well, so I do think it's looking good for her.

3. Colby Donaldson

This is the riskiest take in the post. Last time we saw Colby play Survivor he was a dead fish that didn't want to be there. But he has completely won me over in his pre-season interviews. This is a different Colby Donaldson. Dare I say, this is the Colby Donaldson that almost won Australia. He seems completely deadset on fixing his legacy and is coming to play on his own terms. The biggest thing boosting Colby though is this cast. For better or for worse, recent Survivor has really valued loyalty, and Colby is the poster boy that invented the play. People like Joe and Jonathon are gonna need to change their underwear after having one conversation with Colby.

2. Kamilla Karthigesu

Kamilla may be the most perfectly positioned player to win Survivor 50. It's always the person you most medium suspect, and Kamilla is in that goldilocks zone. She's a great player, is very good at managing her threat level, and has other players to hide behind. I have to acknowledge that Kyle being on the cast cooks her a bit. That's a serious obstacle. But I think it would be incredibly superficial to vote Kamila out that way. We are not talking about Rob and Amber here. With Jonathon on her tribe, and herself on the puzzles, Kamilla might not even face too much heat. And she's very experienced with placating alpha male alliances.

1. Benjamin "Coach" Wade

WHO ELSE COULD IT BE. THE DRAGON SLAYER WILL BE YOUR SURVIVOR 50 WINNER.

Look, Coach is my favorite player of all-time. He's known for being a complete laughing stock, but South Pacific can not be ignored. Coach lost that season from a bad final tribal, a mistake he most certainly has learned from. The thing Coach has going for him above all else though, is his aura. The mythology of Coach is gonna carry him through this game. This cast LOVES him. It's hilarious how many Coach fans are on this cast. People want him in the game, and I seriously believe Coach is savvy enough to play into that. He's a loyalty and honour player who uses it as a tool rather than a crutch (Joe slander). Coach winning Survivor 50 is very reminiscient of Tony winning Winners at War. Why couldn't it happen?